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The mispricing of assets is a fact and cannot be fully explained by the EMH (Cosgrove, Gasper, & Marsh, 2007). The dramatic behaviour of Bitcoin prices in 2018 has features of an Economic Bubble; it bears investigation into how and why such a bubble may have formed when there is no restriction on the information available to public. The unreasonable euphoria of people and its subsequent erosion needs to be studied from a behavioural perspective.

The paper will explore what are the features that make Bitcoins a source of such derision by the experts in the realm of finance. It hopes to add value to the existing body of knowledge by investigating the claims that Bitcoin has all the classical characteristics of being an Economic Bubble. Further, a point of interest for the article is exploring whether the herd mentality may influence the investment behaviour among the participants of the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoins.

Bitcoins are a new field of study, thus the research available on it is limited. In addition, due to its acceptance among the more technologically sound groups, it is an exclusive area of investment for the masses. Bitcoin is gaining acceptance among the financial institutions and merchants willing to accept it as a currency (Kelso, 2018) or at least an investment (Mourdoukoutas, 2018). It throws up important policy questions about regulation and monitoring. This paper has identified the features that made Bitcoin prices in 2017-18 a bubble and identified the reasons behind it in theory.

Keywords: Bitcoins, Herding, Economic Bubbles, Mimetic Contagion, Informational Cascades

JEL Classification: D91, E71, A14, A12

Joyita Banerji, Kaushik Kundu and Parveen Ahmed Alam (2021). The Bitcoin Bubble: Insights of Herd Behaviour. Journal of Money, Banking and Finance, Vol. 7, No. 2, 2021, pp. 111135.

This study evaluates “the Technical Efficiency (TE), Pure Technical Efficiency (PTE) and Scale Efficiency (SE)” of commercial banks and the determinants of efficiency levels in the Gambian banking sector. Data envelopment analysis method and the Tobit regression model were employed to measure a sample of 12 Gambian commercial banks from 2009 to 2017 based on the production approach. The level of overall technical efficiency of the banks was 86.5% in terms of TE, 93.1% in terms of PTE and 92.5% in terms of SE. The results reveal that the banking sector in the Gambia is technically inefficient during the analysis period, due to scale inefficiency rather than pure technical inefficiency. On the other hand, the regression results demonstrate that market power, earnings and GDP have a positive and significant relationship with efficiency measures, while bank size and liquidity have a negative and significant relationship with efficiency measures. The results indicate that the banks have more room to improve their efficiency level, by optimizing their outputs and minimizing their inputs resources.

Keywords: Technical Efficiency, DEA, Tobit Regression, the Gambian Banking

JEL Classification: G2; G21; C67

Bubacar Malang Fatty and H. Semih Yildirim (2021). An Empirical Analysis of Technical Efficiency in the Gambian Banking Sector. Journal of Money, Banking and Finance, Vol. 7, No. 2, 2021, pp. 137- 151.

Though inflation is generally associated negatively with economic growth, there may also possibly be a threshold or positive effect of price rise on industrial growth and thereby on the economy. This paper examines the long and shortrun causal relationship between inflation, money supply and industrial output in India over the period 1981 to 2020 applying the vector error correction mechanism (VECM) approach. The unit root tests show that the index of industrial production, reserve money and consumer price index are stationary at the second difference and are cointegrated. The coefficient of the error correction term is negative, significantly in the inflation equation and insignificantly in the output and money supply equations. The VECM results reveal shortrun causality between money supply and industrial production showing disequilibrium in the shortrun relationship between the industrial production, inflation and money supply and quick adjustment to the longrun equilibrium.

Keywords: Industrial production, money supply, inflation, causality, VECM estimation

T. Lakshmanasamy (2021). The Causal Relationship between Money Supply, Inflation and Industrial Production in India: Vector Error Correction Estimation. Journal of Money, Banking and Finance, Vol. 7, No. 2, 2021, pp. 153169.

This paper investigates the momentum return of U.S. equity spanning from January 1990 to December 2020 incorporating the use of idiosyncratic volatility proposed by Fu (2009), and conditional volatility by Moreira and Muir (2017). The results indicate that the presence of Idiosyncratic volatility does not help improve the momentum return. Using conditional volatility portfolio sorted, risk adjusted return improves as investors lower their return to reduce the risk related to the momentum return. We also investigate the source of momentum returns. The result indicates that the momentum return can be explained by economic variables. However, the size is small, and investors largely ignore the economic factors when forming the momentum portfolio.

Keywords: Momentum, Idiosyncratic Volatility, Factor Models

JEL Classification: G11, G12

Phuvadon Wuthisatian (2021). Momentum Returns and Volatility. Does Matter for Winne rMinus Loser Strategy? Evidence from the Idiosyncratic Volatility and Conditional Volatility. Journal of Money, Banking and Finance, Vol. 7, No. 2, 2021, pp. 171189.

This research aims to observe any prospect of a relationship between the real exchange rate, real interest rate variation from The London Interbank Offered Rate for developing economies, financial development and economic development. This research has used annual data started from 1986-2019. We use various econometric tools that include ADF test to find out the order of integration among variables; ARDL bound testing technique to find out the long and short run association between variables. The Engle Grange or Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) model employed to extract longrun causality and a Granger causality test used to extract short run causality directions. Empirically, Granger causality empirical results indicate evidence of unidirectional causality running from GDP to RIR and GDP to FDI. These findings are robust to alternative specifications and inclusion of control variables. Overall, our study advises policymakers to consider incorporating RIR and FDI asymmetries within the design ofoptimal policy rules to avoid incorrect diagnosis of economic behavior.

Keywords: Real Interest Rate, Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Growth, ARDL, VECM, RL, Cointegration

JEL Classifications: E10, E40, E50, E60, F10, F20.

Fadi Fawaz (2021). A Refinement of the Relationship between Real Exchange Rate, Real Interest Rate Variation, Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: The Case for Developing Countries. Journal of Money, Banking and Finance, Vol. 7, No. 2, 2021, pp. 191211.